GRADEによるエビデンスの確実性の評価方法の第一弾です。

The GRADE Working Group clarifies the construct of certainty of evidence

Abstract

Objective: To clarify the GRADE (grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation) definition of certainty of evidence and suggest possible approaches to rating certainty of the evidence for systematic reviews, health technology assessments and guidelines.

Study Design and Setting: This work was carried out by a project group within the GRADE Working Group, through brainstorming and iterative refinement of ideas, using input from workshops, presentations, and discussions at GRADE Working Group meetings to produce this document, which constitutes official GRADE guidance.

Results: Certainty of evidence is best considered as the certainty that a true effect lies on one side of a specified threshold, or within a chosen range. We define possible approaches for choosing threshold or range. For guidelines, what we call a fully contextualized approach requires simultaneously considering all critical outcomes and their relative value. Less contextualized approaches, more appropriate for systematic reviews and health technology assessments, include using specified ranges of magnitude of effect, e.g. ranges of what we might consider no effect, trivial, small, moderate, or large effects.

Conclusion: It is desirable for systematic review authors, guideline panelists, and health technology assessors to specify the threshold or ranges they are using when rating the certainty in evidence.

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ブログ/MLで解説しているGRADE CPG作成の基本における仮想シナリオでのエビデンスから推奨の判断も本手法を適用します。
仮想シナリオ例での解説後には、実際の診療ガイドラインを使って補足します。